ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
T1loss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Tundra Esports
Doomsignature
33 · 22 games
Banesignature
Fata · 19 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 18 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 17 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 17 games
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 16 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
469 picks · 628 bans
Bane
449 picks · 292 bans
Tiny
436 picks · 489 bans
Sand King
397 picks · 527 bans
Death Prophet
361 picks · 785 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 552 bans
Storm Spirit
344 picks · 541 bans
Pangolier
331 picks · 503 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 68%
Hero pool strength63% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:10
T1 35%Tundra Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 22:55.
Game 2prediction correct27:22
T1 35%Tundra Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 65%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2