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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 17 games
88%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 17 games
82%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 15 games
87%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 14 games
79%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 10 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 10 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
90%

Gaimin Gladiators

Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 21 game
62%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 19 games
74%
Weaver
Weaversignature
tOfu · 19 games
63%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 18 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Ace · 16 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 626 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 289 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 487 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
396 picks · 525 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
361 picks · 784 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 551 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 541 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 502 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 57%
Hero pool strength59% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:35
Thunder Awaken 58%Gaimin Gladiators 42%
The model gave 58% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 46:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPakazs
50% · 293 games43% · 187 games
Storm SpiritBOOM
Storm Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaDarkMago
49% · 374 games51% · 216 games
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Monkey King
Timbersaw
TimbersawSacred
54% · 214 games43% · 420 games
MarsAce
Mars
Mirana
MiranaMatthew
57% · 359 games42% · 210 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Pugna
PugnaPanda
52% · 127 games59% · 334 games
BanetOfu
Bane
Game 2prediction correct43:5
Thunder Awaken 61%Gaimin Gladiators 39%
The model gave 61% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 27:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPakazs
61% · 291 game53% · 135 games
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
Bloodseeker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDarkMago
55% · 313 games43% · 204 games
Void SpiritBOOM
Void Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingSacred
53% · 305 games45% · 499 games
MarsAce
Mars
Mirana
MiranaMatthew
55% · 269 games43% · 273 games
GrimstroketOfu
Grimstroke
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPanda
49% · 132 games42% · 199 games
Keeper of the LightSeleri
Keeper of the Light
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 65%
Accuracy by game1 of 2