ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TSMwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Marsoften banned
zai · 14 games
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 12 games
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
Miranasignature
Boxi · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 11 games
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
TSM
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 9 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 9 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 9 games
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 8 games
Shadow Shaman
MoonMeander · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 627 bans
Bane
447 picks · 289 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 487 bans
Sand King
396 picks · 525 bans
Death Prophet
360 picks · 785 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 551 bans
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 538 bans
Pangolier
329 picks · 500 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:47
Team Liquid 52%TSM 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by TSM in 59:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MarsmiCKe
Keeper of the Lightbryle-
RazorMATUMBAMAN
Chaos KnightTimado
Enigmazai
UnderlordSabeRLight-
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
RubickMoonMeander
ClockwerkBoxi
EnchantressDuBu
Game 2prediction missed25:43
Team Liquid 51%TSM 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by TSM in 39:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SpectreMATUMBAMAN
Chaos KnightTimado
Marszai
Snapfirebryle-
TinymiCKe
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
PhoenixBoxi
Shadow ShamanMoonMeander
UndyingiNSaNiA
Treant ProtectorDuBu
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Series resultTSM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2