ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticloss 1:1series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 17 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 14 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 14 games
Marssignature
DarkMago · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 10 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 627 bans
Bane
447 picks · 289 bans
Tiny
435 picks · 487 bans
Sand King
396 picks · 525 bans
Death Prophet
360 picks · 785 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 551 bans
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 538 bans
Pangolier
329 picks · 500 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 84%
Hero pool strength67% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
Fnatic 32%Thunder Awaken 68%
The model gave 68% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 22:18.
Game 2prediction correct19:33
Fnatic 32%Thunder Awaken 68%
The model gave 68% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 35:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 68%
Accuracy by game2 of 2