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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 18 games
89%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 16 games
81%
Bane
Banesignature
Skem · 15 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Skem · 15 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 14 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
93%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 13 games
92%

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 22 games
64%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 18 games
78%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
72%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 18 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 16 games
75%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 16 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
465 picks · 627 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 289 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 487 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
396 picks · 525 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
360 picks · 783 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 547 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 537 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 499 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:39
BOOM Esports 50%Tundra Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaJaCkky
43% · 93 games57% · 191 game
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Kunkka
KunkkaYopaj
49% · 256 games46% · 89 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
52% · 145 games49% · 111 games
Shadow Demon33
Shadow Demon
Mirana
MiranaTims
51% · 249 games51% · 204 games
SnapfireSaksa
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaSkem
43% · 127 games58% · 275 games
BaneSneyking
Bane
Game 2prediction missed14:20
BOOM Esports 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYopaj
60% · 149 games46% · 232 games
LunaSkiter
Luna
Razor
RazorJaCkky
55% · 115 games39% · 219 games
Void SpiritNine
Void Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightFbz
53% · 134 games59% · 15 games
Visage33
Visage
Mirana
MiranaTims
55% · 133 games43% · 110 games
Treant ProtectorSaksa
Treant Protector
Weaver
WeaverSkem
55% · 151 game46% · 106 games
PugnaSneyking
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 53%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2