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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Bane
Banesignature
Wij · 7 games
71%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 6 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
40%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 4 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Wij · 4 games
0%

OG

Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 18 games
44%
Bane
Banesignature
Misha · 13 games
62%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
bzm · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Misha · 10 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
464 picks · 627 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 289 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 486 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
396 picks · 525 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
360 picks · 783 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 546 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 536 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 499 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:12
Evil Geniuses 53%OG 47%
The model gave 53% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by OG in 37:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 53%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1