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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 14 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 11 games
36%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 11 games
45%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
50%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 9 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
88%

Gaimin Gladiators

Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 19 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 19 games
74%
Weaver
Weaversignature
tOfu · 19 games
63%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 18 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Ace · 16 games
69%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 13 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
463 picks · 628 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 288 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
434 picks · 486 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
396 picks · 525 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
360 picks · 784 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 545 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 531 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 498 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total59% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:22
Team Liquid 48%Gaimin Gladiators 52%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 48:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorMATUMBAMAN
54% · 184 games51% · 93 games
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
Bloodseeker
Sand King
Sand KingmiCKe
52% · 260 games46% · 196 games
Dragon KnightBOOM
Dragon Knight
Enigma
Enigmazai
49% · 25 games43% · 52 games
BroodmotherAce
Broodmother
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
48% · 190 games52% · 201 game
HoodwinktOfu
Hoodwink
Io
IoiNSaNiA
51% · 230 games51% · 347 games
BaneSeleri
Bane
Game 2prediction missed17:10
Team Liquid 45%Gaimin Gladiators 55%
The model gave 55% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 22:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackMATUMBAMAN
53% · 26 games44% · 136 games
Void SpiritBOOM
Void Spirit
Visage
VisagemiCKe
52% · 14 games46% · 94 games
Phantom Assassindyrachyo
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
Pangolierzai
47% · 214 games54% · 48 games
LycanAce
Lycan
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightiNSaNiA
56% · 126 games56% · 31 game
ChenSeleri
Chen
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeBoxi
49% · 223 games51% · 294 games
BanetOfu
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 59%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2