?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 12 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 11 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 10 games
80%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 10 games
80%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 9 games
78%

Thunder Awaken

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 16 games
94%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 16 games
88%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 13 games
92%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 10 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 10 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
462 picks · 627 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 286 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
432 picks · 486 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
395 picks · 525 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
360 picks · 783 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 544 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 530 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 498 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 84%
Hero pool strength58% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:20
Team Spirit 52%Thunder Awaken 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYatoro
44% · 36 games59% · 34 games
SpectrePakazs
Spectre
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
42% · 39 games51% · 182 games
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
46% · 187 games49% · 178 games
SnapfireSacred
Snapfire
Io
IoMira
49% · 175 games59% · 94 games
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Nyx Assassin
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanMiposhka
51% · 80 games44% · 29 games
LichPanda
Lich
Game 2prediction correct40:24
Team Spirit 50%Thunder Awaken 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYatoro
46% · 268 games51% · 248 games
TerrorbladePakazs
Terrorblade
Mars
MarsCollapse
44% · 505 games51% · 321 game
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
55% · 308 games49% · 336 games
Sand KingSacred
Sand King
Rubick
RubickMiposhka
49% · 160 games57% · 315 games
MiranaMatthew
Mirana
Io
IoMira
44% · 188 games53% · 209 games
AbaddonPanda
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 53%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2