ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Mind Gamesloss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Gaimin Gladiators
Banesignature
tOfu · 19 games
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 19 games
Weaversignature
tOfu · 19 games
Iosignature
Seleri · 18 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
Marssignature
Ace · 16 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 628 bans
Bane
450 picks · 284 bans
Tiny
431 picks · 486 bans
Sand King
395 picks · 524 bans
Death Prophet
358 picks · 782 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 545 bans
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 529 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 496 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 62%
Hero pool strength61% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Mind Games 18%Gaimin Gladiators 82%
The model gave 82% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 82%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1