ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mind Gamesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
463 picks · 628 bans
Bane
450 picks · 284 bans
Tiny
431 picks · 486 bans
Sand King
395 picks · 524 bans
Death Prophet
358 picks · 782 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 545 bans
Storm Spirit
343 picks · 529 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 496 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 38%
Hero pool strength50% Fnatic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Fnatic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Fnatic 81%Mind Games 19%
The model gave 81% on Fnatic — the game was taken by Fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoriteFnatic · 81%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1