ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
T1loss 1:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
T1
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
461 picks · 625 bans
Bane
450 picks · 284 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 486 bans
Sand King
395 picks · 523 bans
Death Prophet
357 picks · 780 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 544 bans
Storm Spirit
342 picks · 525 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% T1
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:41
T1 53%beastcoast 47%
The model gave 53% on T1 — the game was taken by beastcoast in 56:43.
Game 2prediction missed20:51
T1 53%beastcoast 47%
The model gave 53% on T1 — the game was taken by beastcoast in 52:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 53%
Accuracy by game0 of 2