ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportsloss 1:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
beastcoastloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BOOM Esports
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 17 games
Weaversignature
Tims · 17 games
Banesignature
Skem · 16 games
Death Prophetsignature
Skem · 14 games
Pangoliersignature
Fbz · 14 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 13 games
Marssignature
Fbz · 13 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
458 picks · 622 bans
Bane
450 picks · 283 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 485 bans
Sand King
395 picks · 521 bans
Death Prophet
355 picks · 780 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 543 bans
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 522 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 491 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 60%
Hero pool strength66% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:22
BOOM Esports 59%beastcoast 41%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by beastcoast in 31:55.
Game 2prediction correct43:25
BOOM Esports 59%beastcoast 41%
The model gave 59% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2