ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
T1win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Marsoften banned
ATF · 17 games
Banesignature
Misha · 13 games
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
bzm · 11 games
Snapfire
Taiga · 11 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Misha · 10 games
Templar Assassinsignature
bzm · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 10 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
458 picks · 622 bans
Bane
450 picks · 283 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 485 bans
Sand King
395 picks · 521 bans
Death Prophet
355 picks · 780 bans
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 543 bans
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 522 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 491 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:34
OG 52%T1 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by T1 in 43:07.
Game 2prediction missed17:35
OG 52%T1 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by T1 in 34:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 52%
Series resultT1 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2