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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 44 games
68%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 43 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 37 games
46%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 36 games
64%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 36 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 33 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 32 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 30 games
47%

Nemiga Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 16 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 9 games
56%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Covisnine · 9 games
22%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 8 games
25%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 7 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
VaniLLl · 7 games
29%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
young G · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
581 picks · 814 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
519 picks · 541 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
427 picks · 389 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
420 picks · 291 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 648 bans
59%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
382 picks · 1008 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
365 picks · 576 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
345 picks · 514 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 39%
Hero pool strength58% HULIGANI
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total71% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:24
HULIGANI 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 45:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinssnovv1
53% · 325 games52% · 231 game
Ursaselfhate
Ursa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirage
48% · 451 game50% · 495 games
Puckyoung G
Puck
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
48% · 364 games50% · 114 games
Primal BeastCovisnine
Primal Beast
Lion
Lionsayuw
48% · 115 games52% · 270 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
48% · 274 games50% · 419 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed12:30
HULIGANI 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 49:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinssnovv1
55% · 180 games49% · 382 games
Beastmasteryoung G
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyMirage
47% · 443 games50% · 158 games
Lifestealerselfhate
Lifestealer
Bristleback
BristlebackCorrupted
50% · 248 games48% · 221 game
TidehunterCovisnine
Tidehunter
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
47% · 175 games55% · 96 games
Nyx Assassinariel
Nyx Assassin
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansayuw
54% · 256 games46% · 445 games
RingmasterVaniLLl
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed9:32
HULIGANI 63%Nemiga Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterssnovv1
50% · 448 games49% · 248 games
Templar Assassinselfhate
Templar Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordCorrupted
54% · 226 games48% · 475 games
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
57% · 503 games38% · 179 games
KunkkaCovisnine
Kunkka
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRESPECT
51% · 106 games47% · 454 games
WarlockVaniLLl
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
54% · 366 games51% · 293 games
Shadow Shamanariel
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 71%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3