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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 10 games
80%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 9 games
89%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
78%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 9 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
89%

Gaimin Gladiators

Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 19 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 19 games
74%
Weaver
Weaversignature
tOfu · 19 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
71%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Ace · 15 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
459 picks · 627 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
455 picks · 283 bans
58%
Tiny
Tiny
429 picks · 485 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
394 picks · 522 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 784 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 544 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 522 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 489 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:29
Team Spirit 62%Gaimin Gladiators 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 37:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 76 games51% · 294 games
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
Monkey King
Mars
MarsCollapse
44% · 508 games55% · 278 games
Dragon KnightAce
Dragon Knight
Tiny
TinyYatoro
47% · 312 games54% · 305 games
Storm SpiritBOOM
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMira
46% · 205 games57% · 270 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMiposhka
44% · 257 games51% · 211 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed8:35
Team Spirit 62%Gaimin Gladiators 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 31:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomCollapse
43% · 137 games51% · 82 games
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
Bloodseeker
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYatoro
52% · 277 games46% · 228 games
Ember SpiritBOOM
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingTORONTOTOKYO
55% · 309 games47% · 387 games
MarsAce
Mars
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMira
47% · 180 games57% · 179 games
MiranatOfu
Mirana
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMiposhka
49% · 130 games53% · 157 games
IoSeleri
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 72%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2