ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Fnaticwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
TSM
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
DuBu · 9 games
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 8 games
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 8 games
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
MoonMeander · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
459 picks · 627 bans
Bane
455 picks · 283 bans
Tiny
429 picks · 485 bans
Sand King
394 picks · 522 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 784 bans
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 544 bans
Storm Spirit
339 picks · 522 bans
Pangolier
324 picks · 489 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 61%
Hero pool strength62% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:22
Fnatic 47%TSM 53%
The model gave 53% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 44:11.
Game 2prediction correct16:15
Fnatic 47%TSM 53%
The model gave 53% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 49:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 53%
Series resultFnatic 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2