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ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
TSMloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
72%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
73%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 9 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Timado · 8 games
88%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 8 games
75%
Weaver
Weaversignature
MoonMeander · 8 games
88%
Io
Iosignature
MoonMeander · 7 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
MoonMeander · 7 games
71%

Gaimin Gladiators

Bane
Banesignature
tOfu · 19 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Ace · 19 games
74%
Weaver
Weaversignature
tOfu · 19 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 17 games
71%
Io
Iosignature
Seleri · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Ace · 15 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Seleri · 15 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
457 picks · 626 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
455 picks · 281 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
425 picks · 484 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
394 picks · 518 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 781 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 543 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
338 picks · 518 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 488 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% TSM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:21
TSM 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on TSM — the game was taken by TSM in 45:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
53% · 84 games42% · 52 games
Svendyrachyo
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaTimado
47% · 112 games58% · 46 games
LycanAce
Lycan
Underlord
Underlordbryle-
50% · 29 games47% · 174 games
PangolierBOOM
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressDuBu
48% · 67 games51% · 120 games
Keeper of the LighttOfu
Keeper of the Light
Io
IoMoonMeander
56% · 130 games47% · 30 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Game 2prediction correct9:27
TSM 49%Gaimin Gladiators 51%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyTimado
45% · 189 games56% · 98 games
Bloodseekerdyrachyo
Bloodseeker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritQuinn
42% · 233 games51% · 212 games
Dragon KnightAce
Dragon Knight
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderbryle-
51% · 69 games54% · 306 games
Storm SpiritBOOM
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightMoonMeander
44% · 149 games59% · 11 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Enchantress
EnchantressDuBu
51% · 108 games52% · 121 game
Shadow ShamantOfu
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTSM · 51%
Accuracy by game2 of 2