ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
T1win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Banesignature
Wij · 7 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 4 games
Ogre Magi
Wij · 4 games
T1
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
456 picks · 624 bans
Bane
455 picks · 280 bans
Tiny
424 picks · 483 bans
Sand King
393 picks · 518 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 781 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 540 bans
Storm Spirit
336 picks · 516 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:9
Evil Geniuses 58%T1 42%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by T1 in 31:23.
Game 2prediction missed25:28
Evil Geniuses 58%T1 42%
The model gave 58% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by T1 in 48:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 58%
Series resultT1 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2