ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Geniuses
Banesignature
Wij · 7 games
Spirit Breakersignature
Hyko · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Medusaoften banned
Parker · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Parker · 4 games
Ogre Magi
Wij · 4 games
Tundra Esports
Banesignature
Fata · 18 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 18 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 18 games
Doom
33 · 17 games
Weaversignature
Sneyking · 16 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 15 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 14 games
Hoodwinksignature
Saksa · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
456 picks · 622 bans
Bane
455 picks · 279 bans
Tiny
423 picks · 483 bans
Sand King
392 picks · 517 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 781 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 540 bans
Storm Spirit
334 picks · 516 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 485 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 63%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:8
Evil Geniuses 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:02.
Game 2prediction missed20:32
Evil Geniuses 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 51%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2