BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy SEA
No games played over 6 months.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 11 games
Bane
boombell · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
Lion
boombell · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
Q · 7 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 6 games
Snapfire
Q · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
457 picks · 279 bans
Mars
451 picks · 624 bans
Tiny
420 picks · 482 bans
Sand King
389 picks · 509 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 781 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 539 bans
Storm Spirit
329 picks · 510 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 483 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 19%
Hero pool strength57% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total62% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:16
Nigma Galaxy SEA 62%Motivate.Trust Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 33:39.
Game 2prediction missed30:7
Nigma Galaxy SEA 62%Motivate.Trust Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 22:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 62%
Accuracy by game0 of 2