?
arrow_backBack to match
BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Army Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 13 games
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 13 games
46%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 12 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 12 games
58%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
NARMAN · 12 games
58%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 11 games
45%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Enryu · 9 games
67%

Army Geniuses

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 9 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 9 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Varizh · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Varizh · 7 games
43%
Razor
Razoroften banned
db- · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 6 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
db- · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
454 picks · 281 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
452 picks · 621 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
419 picks · 480 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
387 picks · 506 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
364 picks · 779 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 535 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
326 picks · 509 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
322 picks · 479 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)15% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total64% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:25
Neon Esports 45%Army Geniuses 55%
The model gave 55% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterEnryu
61% · 225 games50% · 165 games
Templar AssassinAzur4
Templar Assassin
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeJing
45% · 389 games45% · 189 games
Ember Spiritdb-
Ember Spirit
Lion
LionChuaN
43% · 319 games46% · 166 games
TidehunterwoMy
Tidehunter
57% · 134 games
Monkey KingNARMAN
Monkey King
54% · 279 games
BaneVarizh
Bane
Game 2prediction correct24:39
Neon Esports 43%Army Geniuses 57%
The model gave 57% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 34:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingEnryu
55% · 184 games49% · 165 games
Dragon Knightdb-
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJing
46% · 222 games49% · 22 games
SlarkAzur4
Slark
Windranger
WindrangerChuaN
54% · 73 games50% · 107 games
TimbersawwoMy
Timbersaw
51% · 108 games
Monkey KingNARMAN
Monkey King
43% · 77 games
GyrocopterVarizh
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 64%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2