BTS Pro Series Season 11. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OOsmiumloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moo · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
ZfreeK · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Gunnar · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
ZfreeK · 2 games
Bane
Husky · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Moo · 1 game
Chenoften banned
ZfreeK · 1 game
Clockwerk
Husky · 1 game
Osmium
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Bane
Mjz · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
drakeel · 1 game
Iooften banned
sl4d1n- · 1 game
Juggernaut
Mnz · 1 game
Lion
Mjz · 1 game
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
453 picks · 282 bans
Mars
451 picks · 620 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 480 bans
Sand King
387 picks · 506 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 781 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 535 bans
Storm Spirit
326 picks · 506 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 478 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 27%
Hero pool strength50% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:10
nouns 64%Osmium 36%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeCostabile
MorphlingMnz
InvokerGunnar
Tusksl4d1n-
BrewmasterMoo
BaneMjz
Shadow DemonZfreeK
EnchantressHusky
Game 2prediction correct29:18
nouns 62%Osmium 38%
The model gave 62% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetCostabile
TinyMnz
Crystal MaidenGunnar
Miranasl4d1n-
PangolierMoo
Death ProphetMjz
VenomancerHusky
WeaverZfreeK
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 73%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2