?
arrow_backBack to match
BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 19 games
84%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 13 games
85%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 10 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 9 games
78%
Weaver
Weaversignature
cml · 9 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
453 picks · 279 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
451 picks · 615 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 480 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
384 picks · 501 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
363 picks · 782 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 531 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
324 picks · 502 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
320 picks · 475 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 44%
Hero pool strength62% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total57% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:22
Polaris Esports 57%Nigma Galaxy SEA 43%
The model gave 57% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 43:56.
Game 2prediction correct29:24
Polaris Esports 57%Nigma Galaxy SEA 43%
The model gave 57% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 36:44.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 57%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2