BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 12 games
Lion
boombell · 10 games
Bane
boombell · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
Q · 7 games
Medusaoften banned
JaCkky · 6 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Fearless · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
455 picks · 280 bans
Mars
449 picks · 614 bans
Tiny
413 picks · 480 bans
Sand King
381 picks · 499 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 781 bans
Ember Spirit
343 picks · 528 bans
Storm Spirit
323 picks · 500 bans
Pangolier
320 picks · 472 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 19%
Hero pool strength56% Lilgun
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total64% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed52:15
Lilgun 64%Motivate.Trust Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 36:01.
Game 2prediction missed23:3
Lilgun 64%Motivate.Trust Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 23:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 64%
Accuracy by game0 of 2