BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs predictionPPatriotsloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Patriots
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 4 games
Razoroften banned
dalul · 4 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Jikroy · 3 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Jikroy · 2 games
Hoodwink
Lym- · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lym- · 2 games
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 1 game
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 12 games
Lion
boombell · 10 games
Bane
boombell · 9 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 7 games
Weaveroften banned
Q · 7 games
Snapfire
Q · 6 games
Linaoften banned
Fearless · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
455 picks · 280 bans
Mars
447 picks · 612 bans
Tiny
410 picks · 478 bans
Sand King
374 picks · 495 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 780 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 517 bans
Storm Spirit
321 picks · 494 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 468 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 20%
Hero pool strength53% Patriots
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Patriots
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:25
Patriots 49%Motivate.Trust Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Patriots in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaMamangDaya
MedusaKNP
Chaos KnightJikroy
Queen of PainFearless
Razordalul
Nyx AssassinLym-
Game 2prediction correct12:33
Patriots 50%Motivate.Trust Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinJikroy
LycanKNP
KunkkaMamangDaya
Dragon KnightFearless
Razordalul
HoodwinkLym-
Model check result
Model favoritePatriots · 51%
Accuracy by game1 of 2