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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 1:2
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 31 game
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 28 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 28 games
57%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 25 games
64%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 20 games
65%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 19 games
68%

PSG Quest

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 3 games
100%
Mirana
Mirana
OmaR · 3 games
67%
Io
Iooften banned
Eixn · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
OmaR · 2 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 2 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Eixn · 2 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Eixn · 1 game
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Eixn · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
460 picks · 282 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
447 picks · 605 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
409 picks · 476 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
368 picks · 489 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 776 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 516 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
319 picks · 489 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
315 picks · 461 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:30
Hydra 67%PSG Quest 33%
The model gave 67% on Hydra — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 30:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaAskold
42% · 87 games49% · 222 games
RubickNo!ob
Rubick
Weaver
WeaverKami
49% · 132 games54% · 80 games
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Phoenix
PhoenixZayac
56% · 43 games43% · 72 games
UndyingEixn
Undying
Bane
BaneMuka
57% · 112 games
Game 2prediction correct36:11
Hydra 66%PSG Quest 34%
The model gave 66% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightKami
51% · 103 games52% · 117 games
Sand KingNo!ob
Sand King
Leshrac
LeshracAskold
56% · 98 games57% · 127 games
Dragon KnightEixn
Dragon Knight
Chen
ChenZayac
44% · 20 games46% · 135 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMuka
40% · 158 games
Game 3prediction missed21:31
Hydra 65%PSG Quest 35%
The model gave 65% on Hydra — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 36:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautKami
53% · 61 game54% · 89 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Puck
PuckAskold
43% · 201 game59% · 110 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Enigma
EnigmaZayac
51% · 12 games50% · 122 games
GrimstrokeEixn
Grimstroke
Pugna
PugnaMuka
39% · 47 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 78%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3