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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай. Финал · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Asterloss 0:3
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:3
LGD Gamingwin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Aster

Bane
Banesignature
Fantasy · 28 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Fantasy · 23 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 22 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fantasy · 21 game
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 19 games
74%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
BoBoKa · 17 games
59%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Ori · 16 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
BoBoKa · 15 games
80%

LGD Gaming

Bane
Banesignature
y` · 15 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
y` · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
460 picks · 282 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
445 picks · 605 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
408 picks · 476 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
368 picks · 489 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
362 picks · 773 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 516 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
319 picks · 486 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
314 picks · 459 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 70%
Hero pool strength51% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total69% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:24
Team Aster 39%LGD Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMonet
59% · 70 games52% · 226 games
Monkey KingAme
Monkey King
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightOri
43% · 116 games48% · 180 games
LeshracNothingToSay
Leshrac
Mars
MarsXxs
51% · 257 games51% · 85 games
BrewmasterFaith_bian
Brewmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoBoKa
43% · 112 games49% · 91 game
Shadow ShamanXinQ
Shadow Shaman
Abaddon
AbaddonFantasy
60% · 82 games47% · 55 games
Omniknighty`
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct14:23
Team Aster 40%LGD Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 34:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMonet
46% · 191 game57% · 116 games
Chaos KnightAme
Chaos Knight
Pangolier
PangolierOri
50% · 209 games55% · 291 game
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsXxs
44% · 343 games52% · 154 games
PhoenixFaith_bian
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoBoKa
56% · 127 games50% · 317 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Pugna
PugnaFantasy
41% · 73 games44% · 65 games
Omniknighty`
Omniknight
Game 3prediction correct24:22
Team Aster 42%LGD Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOri
53% · 86 games65% · 27 games
Anti-MageAme
Anti-Mage
Lifestealer
LifestealerMonet
55% · 49 games47% · 151 game
KunkkaNothingToSay
Kunkka
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightXxs
44% · 81 game39% · 29 games
UnderlordFaith_bian
Underlord
Pugna
PugnaBoBoKa
54% · 47 games49% · 57 games
Shadow ShamanXinQ
Shadow Shaman
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFantasy
45% · 20 games56% · 19 games
Witch Doctory`
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 69%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3