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BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Force · 18 games
78%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 15 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 12 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 11 games
82%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
73%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
67%
Weaver
Weaversignature
cml · 9 games
67%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lion
boombell · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 10 games
30%
Bane
Bane
boombell · 9 games
44%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 7 games
43%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Q · 7 games
29%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Fearless · 6 games
0%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Q · 6 games
17%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
460 picks · 282 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
443 picks · 604 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
408 picks · 476 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
366 picks · 486 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
359 picks · 772 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 516 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
317 picks · 483 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
312 picks · 458 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 21%
Hero pool strength65% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total77% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:31
Polaris Esports 67%Motivate.Trust Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 49:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNatsumi
44% · 77 games46% · 99 games
UrsaKNP
Ursa
Snapfire
SnapfireMac
44% · 118 games54% · 316 games
Ember SpiritFearless
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNevermine
58% · 105 games
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionBoomy
51% · 63 games
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPlayHard
51% · 52 games
Game 2prediction correct47:21
Polaris Esports 69%Motivate.Trust Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 29:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMac
53% · 93 games44% · 146 games
TerrorbladeKNP
Terrorblade
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightNatsumi
48% · 41 game53% · 224 games
Ember SpiritFearless
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierNevermine
51% · 140 games
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPlayHard
55% · 52 games
Undying
UndyingBoomy
52% · 44 games
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 77%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2