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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
NothingToSay · 15 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
y` · 14 games
71%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
y` · 14 games
79%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
y` · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ame · 9 games
78%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
88%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 8 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
63%

Xtreme Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 15 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
77%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
77%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
lou · 13 games
69%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 12 games
100%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 12 games
75%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
459 picks · 282 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
443 picks · 604 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
408 picks · 476 bans
51%
Sand King
Sand King
366 picks · 486 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
357 picks · 771 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 514 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
317 picks · 480 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
311 picks · 457 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 72%
Hero pool strength52% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:31
LGD Gaming 64%Xtreme Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerAme
49% · 43 games50% · 239 games
LinaPaparazi
Lina
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
49% · 218 games61% · 31 game
Clinkzlou
Clinkz
Doom
DoomFaith_bian
51% · 84 games44% · 248 games
Dragon KnightELeVeN
Dragon Knight
Phoenix
PhoenixXinQ
47% · 144 games46% · 86 games
Shadow ShamanPyw
Shadow Shaman
Bane
Baney`
55% · 255 games52% · 140 games
Treant ProtectorDy
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct35:15
LGD Gaming 62%Xtreme Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAme
54% · 120 games54% · 56 games
Juggernautlou
Juggernaut
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
45% · 222 games44% · 204 games
Dragon KnightPaparazi
Dragon Knight
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFaith_bian
52% · 75 games46% · 73 games
Chaos KnightELeVeN
Chaos Knight
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
51% · 95 games54% · 120 games
PhoenixPyw
Phoenix
Death Prophet
Death Prophety`
55% · 199 games45% · 258 games
GrimstrokeDy
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct31:13
LGD Gaming 62%Xtreme Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 27:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaNothingToSay
49% · 291 game46% · 165 games
Dragon KnightPaparazi
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingAme
53% · 166 games58% · 180 games
Templar Assassinlou
Templar Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFaith_bian
50% · 79 games51% · 60 games
Centaur WarrunnerELeVeN
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanXinQ
51% · 101 game46% · 216 games
Death ProphetPyw
Death Prophet
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demony`
52% · 196 games45% · 212 games
GrimstrokeDy
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 73%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3