Gamers Without Borders 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Banesignature
KuroKy · 13 games
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 11 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
Invokeroften banned
Miracle- · 9 games
Tusk
GH · 9 games
Dark Seersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Sand Kingoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Clockwerk
GH · 7 games
Team Liquid
Miranasignature
Boxi · 12 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
Banesignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
Iosignature
iNSaNiA · 8 games
Lunasignature
MATUMBAMAN · 8 games
Queen of Painsignature
miCKe · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
453 picks · 280 bans
Mars
439 picks · 602 bans
Tiny
407 picks · 472 bans
Sand King
362 picks · 482 bans
Death Prophet
357 picks · 770 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 506 bans
Storm Spirit
316 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
307 picks · 454 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total66% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:36
Nigma Galaxy 41%Team Liquid 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom LancerMiracle-
RazorMATUMBAMAN
Dragon KnightMinD_ContRoL
Faceless VoidmiCKe
BatriderrmN-
Visagezai
Keeper of the LightGH
ClockwerkBoxi
BaneKuroKy
IoiNSaNiA
Game 2prediction correct14:35
Nigma Galaxy 42%Team Liquid 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 29:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverMiracle-
Nature's ProphetMATUMBAMAN
UnderlordrmN-
MarsmiCKe
PangolierMinD_ContRoL
Vengeful Spiritzai
Shadow ShamanGH
GrimstrokeBoxi
EnigmaKuroKy
UndyingiNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 66%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2