Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gambit Esportswin 2:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gambit Esports
Bane
Panto · 2 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 2 games
Mirana
sayuw · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
AfterLife · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
AfterLife · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 1 game
Juggernaut
Smiling Knight · 1 game
Hydra
Banesignature
Zayac · 31 game
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 28 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 26 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 25 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 20 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
456 picks · 279 bans
Mars
441 picks · 600 bans
Tiny
405 picks · 472 bans
Sand King
361 picks · 481 bans
Death Prophet
357 picks · 770 bans
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 506 bans
Storm Spirit
314 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
306 picks · 454 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 53%
Hero pool strength57% Hydra
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total70% Gambit Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:8
Gambit Esports 70%Hydra 30%
The model gave 70% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Hydra in 19:52.
Game 2prediction missed34:19
Gambit Esports 70%Hydra 30%
The model gave 70% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Hydra in 26:19.
Game 3prediction missed42:11
Gambit Esports 70%Hydra 30%
The model gave 70% on Gambit Esports — the game was taken by Hydra in 34:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteGambit Esports · 70%
Series resultGambit Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3