BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Lilgunloss 1:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
PPatriotsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patriots
Dragon Knightoften banned
MamangDaya · 3 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Jikroy · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lym- · 2 games
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 2 games
Razoroften banned
dalul · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Jikroy · 1 game
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
457 picks · 279 bans
Mars
441 picks · 600 bans
Tiny
405 picks · 472 bans
Sand King
360 picks · 482 bans
Death Prophet
356 picks · 769 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 506 bans
Storm Spirit
314 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
306 picks · 454 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 25%
Hero pool strength55% Lilgun
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:10
Lilgun 62%Patriots 38%
The model gave 62% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Patriots in 27:26.
Game 2prediction missed37:14
Lilgun 62%Patriots 38%
The model gave 62% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Patriots in 36:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 62%
Accuracy by game0 of 2