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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 45 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 29 games
48%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ace · 25 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 25 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%

Team Spirit

Tusk
Tusksignature
rue · 29 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 28 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 25 games
76%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 23 games
61%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
59%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 20 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
582 picks · 846 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 539 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
440 picks · 399 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
429 picks · 296 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 1024 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
387 picks · 658 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
372 picks · 579 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
352 picks · 532 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 6
Model total57% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:21
Team Liquid 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
52% · 167 games57% · 133 games
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsAce
47% · 370 games51% · 294 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyNisha
49% · 524 games54% · 361 game
SlardarLarl
Slardar
Warlock
WarlocktOfu
43% · 520 games47% · 347 games
Windrangerrue
Windranger
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
48% · 291 game50% · 737 games
JakiroPanto
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed13:40
Team Liquid 56%Team Spirit 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 42:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNisha
52% · 107 games44% · 166 games
KezYatoro
Kez
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
57% · 233 games49% · 151 game
LargoCollapse
Largo
Mars
MarsAce
54% · 351 game48% · 469 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Jakiro
JakirotOfu
48% · 568 games47% · 578 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Marci
MarciBoxi
53% · 189 games48% · 84 games
Lionrue
Lion
Game 3prediction correct42:5
Team Liquid 55%Team Spirit 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
50% · 216 games54% · 89 games
KezYatoro
Kez
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
48% · 307 games55% · 106 games
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
49% · 172 games50% · 354 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Oracle
OracletOfu
48% · 57 games54% · 352 games
Batriderrue
Batrider
Tiny
TinyBoxi
45% · 348 games47% · 199 games
PhoenixPanto
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 57%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3