Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO1
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 1:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Novaloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Mirana
OmaR · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 2 games
Iooften banned
Eixn · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
OmaR · 2 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Eixn · 2 games
Bane
Eixn · 1 game
Earth Spirit
OmaR · 1 game
Nova
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
foryou · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
paradise' · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
foryou · 6 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
paradise' · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
foryou · 5 games
Puckoften banned
foryou · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
457 picks · 277 bans
Mars
438 picks · 594 bans
Tiny
403 picks · 470 bans
Sand King
354 picks · 478 bans
Death Prophet
351 picks · 767 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 499 bans
Storm Spirit
309 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
303 picks · 447 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 31%
Hero pool strength56% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Nova
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:6
PSG Quest 48%Nova 52%
The model gave 52% on Nova — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 20:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death ProphetNo!ob
Templar Assassinforyou
ClockwerkEixn
Vengeful Spiritparadise'
Shadow ShamanOmaR
MarsBb3px
Model check result
Model favoriteNova · 57%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1