BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilgunloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Force · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 11 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
cml · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 9 games
Weaversignature
cml · 9 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
456 picks · 277 bans
Mars
437 picks · 594 bans
Tiny
403 picks · 470 bans
Sand King
354 picks · 477 bans
Death Prophet
351 picks · 765 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 498 bans
Storm Spirit
308 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
302 picks · 447 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:27
Polaris Esports 68%Lilgun 32%
The model gave 68% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 44:59.
Game 2prediction correct52:17
Polaris Esports 68%Lilgun 32%
The model gave 68% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 30:50.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 68%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2