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BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxy SEAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 15 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 13 games
54%
Lion
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 13 games
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 13 games
46%
Weaver
Weaversignature
NARMAN · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
NARMAN · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Enryu · 9 games
67%

Nigma Galaxy SEA

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
458 picks · 277 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
438 picks · 593 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 470 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
354 picks · 474 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
350 picks · 764 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
331 picks · 498 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
308 picks · 454 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
300 picks · 447 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)16% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total69% Nigma Galaxy SEA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:20
Neon Esports 31%Nigma Galaxy SEA 69%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 19:49.
Game 2prediction correct11:30
Neon Esports 31%Nigma Galaxy SEA 69%
The model gave 69% on Nigma Galaxy SEA — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy SEA in 30:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy SEA · 69%
Series resultNigma Galaxy SEA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2