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CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
AVULUSwin 2:1
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 25 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 25 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 21 game
57%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
24%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 16 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
Corrupted · 15 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Wein · 15 games
33%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 15 games
40%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 12 games
25%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 12 games
17%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Gothic- · 11 games
18%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Gothic- · 10 games
30%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 10 games
10%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 10 games
10%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 10 games
20%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 9 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
591 picks · 859 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
507 picks · 538 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
447 picks · 405 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 299 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 1032 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 667 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 581 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 546 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 18%
Hero pool strength65% AVULUS
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total85% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:8
AVULUS 74%Natus Vincere Junior 26%
The model gave 74% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 28:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
57% · 209 games46% · 131 game
Razorkrol9ash
Razor
Largo
LargoPalantimos
61% · 105 games45% · 423 games
Puckgbc
Puck
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritdualrazee
54% · 390 games41% · 494 games
TinyGothic-
Tiny
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
55% · 201 game49% · 92 games
LionHyugadoto
Lion
Disruptor
Disruptorasdekor_r
47% · 235 games
Game 2prediction missed11:24
AVULUS 73%Natus Vincere Junior 27%
The model gave 73% on AVULUS — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckdualrazee
52% · 311 games44% · 278 games
Batriderkrol9ash
Batrider
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidDarkLord^
57% · 60 games43% · 164 games
Earthshakergbc
Earthshaker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
55% · 245 games49% · 331 game
Shadow DemonHyugadoto
Shadow Demon
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
57% · 185 games46% · 112 games
Bounty HunterGothic-
Bounty Hunter
Weaver
Weaverqueezy
50% · 84 games
Game 3prediction correct30:17
AVULUS 74%Natus Vincere Junior 26%
The model gave 74% on AVULUS — the game was taken by AVULUS in 43:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterdualrazee
47% · 153 games50% · 76 games
Tinkergbc
Tinker
Lifestealer
LifestealerDarkLord^
43% · 44 games57% · 159 games
Underlordkrol9ash
Underlord
Brewmaster
BrewmasterPalantimos
46% · 46 games46% · 90 games
Bounty HunterGothic-
Bounty Hunter
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
54% · 108 games49% · 110 games
DazzleHyugadoto
Dazzle
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionasdekor_r
54% · 84 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 85%
Series resultAVULUS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3