PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 28 games
Tusksignature
rue · 28 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 22 games
Ringmaster
rue · 22 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 20 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 18 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
Tundra Esports
Batridersignature
Ari · 39 games
Jakirosignature
Whitemon · 27 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 27 games
Banesignature
Whitemon · 26 games
Invokersignature
bzm · 26 games
Tinysignature
bzm · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 24 games
Axesignature
33 · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
590 picks · 859 bans
Tiny
507 picks · 536 bans
Tusk
446 picks · 405 bans
Warlock
435 picks · 299 bans
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 1030 bans
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 666 bans
Mars
381 picks · 579 bans
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 546 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct50:13
Team Spirit 55%Tundra Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 40:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzYatoro
MorphlingParker
DoomCollapse
Timbersaw33
BatriderLarl
Beastmasterbzm
Hoodwinkrue
Shadow ShamanAri
TuskPanto
PhoenixWhitemon
Game 2prediction correct38:11
Team Spirit 56%Tundra Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverYatoro
MedusaParker
PangolierCollapse
Beastmaster33
Sand KingLarl
Batriderbzm
Ringmasterrue
Keeper of the LightAri
Treant ProtectorPanto
JakiroWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2