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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorrywin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Novaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Sorry

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
layme · 18 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 16 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 16 games
38%
Bane
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 15 games
40%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 15 games
47%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 13 games
38%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
LastHero- · 9 games
33%

Nova

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
foryou · 7 games
29%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
foryou · 6 games
67%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
paradise' · 6 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
paradise' · 6 games
17%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
foryou · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
so bad · 5 games
20%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
456 picks · 275 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
434 picks · 590 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
403 picks · 468 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
352 picks · 470 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
350 picks · 763 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 491 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
306 picks · 442 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
295 picks · 442 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% No Sorry
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:15
No Sorry 58%Nova 42%
The model gave 58% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 28:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWorick
45% · 169 games50% · 190 games
Wraith Kingparadise'
Wraith King
Doom
DoomLastHero-
50% · 133 games48% · 232 games
Invokerforyou
Invoker
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinlayme
54% · 216 games51% · 415 games
MarsBb3px
Mars
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBLACKARXANGEL
53% · 87 games
Hoodwink
Hoodwinky0nd
50% · 232 games
Game 2prediction correct37:24
No Sorry 55%Nova 45%
The model gave 55% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 37:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Magelayme
53% · 60 games54% · 231 game
Medusaparadise'
Medusa
Tidehunter
TidehunterLastHero-
49% · 146 games60% · 187 games
BeastmasterBb3px
Beastmaster
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritWorick
46% · 148 games48% · 206 games
Puckforyou
Puck
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magey0nd
38% · 54 games
Bane
BaneBLACKARXANGEL
49% · 216 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 65%
Series resultNo Sorry 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2