BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:1series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Lilgunloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Neon Esports
Tidehuntersignature
Enryu · 15 games
Kunkkaoften banned
MamangDaya · 13 games
Lionsignature
NARMAN · 13 games
Weaversignature
NARMAN · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Enryu · 12 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 12 games
Mirana
NARMAN · 11 games
Beastmastersignature
Enryu · 9 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
459 picks · 275 bans
Mars
434 picks · 590 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 468 bans
Sand King
352 picks · 470 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 762 bans
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 490 bans
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 442 bans
Pangolier
295 picks · 441 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)17% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Neon Esports
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total60% Lilgun
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:33
Neon Esports 40%Lilgun 60%
The model gave 60% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Lilgun in 32:26.
Game 2prediction missed33:23
Neon Esports 40%Lilgun 60%
The model gave 60% on Lilgun — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 38:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilgun · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2