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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
X3win 2:0
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

X3

Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 17 games
35%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Mastery · 7 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 7 games
29%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 7 games
43%
Lina
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 6 games
50%

Hydra

Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 31 game
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
77%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 28 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 26 games
58%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Askold · 25 games
64%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 20 games
65%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
458 picks · 276 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
435 picks · 590 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
402 picks · 468 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
351 picks · 469 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
349 picks · 762 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 489 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
304 picks · 441 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
295 picks · 443 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total73% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:7
X3 38%Hydra 62%
The model gave 62% on Hydra — the game was taken by X3 in 26:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinnesfeer
59% · 137 games49% · 66 games
Nature's ProphetKami
Nature's Prophet
Timbersaw
TimbersawMastery
49% · 70 games47% · 298 games
Storm SpiritAskold
Storm Spirit
Invoker
InvokerNattyNarwhal
43% · 94 games52% · 186 games
Keeper of the LightZayac
Keeper of the Light
Sand King
Sand Kingvelheor
47% · 120 games53% · 89 games
UndyingMuka
Undying
Bane
Baneantoha
52% · 218 games
Game 2prediction missed40:20
X3 37%Hydra 63%
The model gave 63% on Hydra — the game was taken by X3 in 43:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkanesfeer
48% · 134 games49% · 257 games
LunaKami
Luna
Batrider
BatriderNattyNarwhal
49% · 81 game45% · 189 games
LeshracAskold
Leshrac
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMastery
50% · 144 games48% · 101 game
PugnaZayac
Pugna
Mirana
Miranavelheor
54% · 145 games51% · 194 games
ClockwerkMuka
Clockwerk
Bane
Baneantoha
58% · 237 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 73%
Series resultX3 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2