BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PPatriotsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Force · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 10 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 10 games
Snapfiresignature
Boomy · 10 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 9 games
Weaversignature
cml · 9 games
Patriots
Chaos Knightoften banned
Jikroy · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
dalul · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lym- · 2 games
Necrophosoften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
Night Stalkeroften banned
dalul · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
458 picks · 274 bans
Mars
434 picks · 590 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 468 bans
Sand King
350 picks · 469 bans
Death Prophet
349 picks · 761 bans
Ember Spirit
325 picks · 488 bans
Storm Spirit
304 picks · 441 bans
Pangolier
294 picks · 442 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:20
Polaris Esports 70%Patriots 30%
The model gave 70% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 36:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNatsumi
KunkkaMamangDaya
SnapfireMac
Troll WarlordJikroy
MarsNevermine
Razordalul
Shadow DemonPlayHard
Earth SpiritLym-
ClockwerkBoomy
Game 2prediction correct39:24
Polaris Esports 70%Patriots 30%
The model gave 70% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 45:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaMac
Anti-MageJikroy
Faceless VoidNatsumi
Ember SpiritMamangDaya
Sand KingNevermine
Pangolierdalul
GrimstrokePlayHard
Skywrath MageLym-
Ogre MagiBoomy
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 83%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2