BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
RSGloss 0:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
RSG
No games played over 6 months.
Polaris Esports
Pangoliersignature
Force · 16 games
Marsoften banned
Force · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 10 games
Grimstrokesignature
Boomy · 10 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 10 games
Snapfiresignature
cml · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
Mac · 9 games
Lionsignature
cml · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
455 picks · 274 bans
Mars
432 picks · 579 bans
Tiny
395 picks · 463 bans
Death Prophet
348 picks · 747 bans
Sand King
336 picks · 462 bans
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 482 bans
Storm Spirit
294 picks · 430 bans
Pangolier
290 picks · 433 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:20
RSG 41%Polaris Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 32:21.
Game 2prediction correct47:13
RSG 41%Polaris Esports 59%
The model gave 59% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 30:01.
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 59%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2