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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorryloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
X3win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Sorry

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
layme · 17 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 16 games
63%
Bane
Bane
BLACKARXANGEL · 15 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 15 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 15 games
40%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 14 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 11 games
36%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
LastHero- · 9 games
33%

X3

Bane
Bane
Kidaro · 14 games
29%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 8 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 7 games
43%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
velheor · 6 games
17%
Lina
Linaoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 6 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 6 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mastery · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
452 picks · 274 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
432 picks · 582 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
394 picks · 461 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 747 bans
54%
Sand King
Sand King
334 picks · 461 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 479 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
295 picks · 428 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
290 picks · 433 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 43%
Hero pool strength53% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:28
No Sorry 59%X3 41%
The model gave 59% on No Sorry — the game was taken by X3 in 28:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightlayme
45% · 124 games49% · 35 games
Naga Sirennesfeer
Naga Siren
Slardar
SlardarLastHero-
52% · 49 games57% · 85 games
Keeper of the LightNattyNarwhal
Keeper of the Light
Batrider
BatriderWorick
47% · 112 games50% · 127 games
Dragon KnightMastery
Dragon Knight
Disruptor
DisruptorBLACKARXANGEL
50% · 182 games46% · 152 games
Hoodwinkvelheor
Hoodwink
Io
Ioso bad
52% · 221 game52% · 289 games
Baneantoha
Bane
Game 2prediction correct21:13
No Sorry 56%X3 44%
The model gave 56% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlinglayme
38% · 171 game54% · 303 games
Tinynesfeer
Tiny
Death Prophet
Death ProphetLastHero-
49% · 335 games47% · 165 games
InvokerNattyNarwhal
Invoker
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
51% · 331 game48% · 187 games
Dragon KnightMastery
Dragon Knight
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightso bad
50% · 205 games60% · 177 games
Miranavelheor
Mirana
Undying
UndyingBLACKARXANGEL
48% · 101 game55% · 311 games
Baneantoha
Bane
Game 3prediction missed18:27
No Sorry 60%X3 40%
The model gave 60% on No Sorry — the game was taken by X3 in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerlayme
48% · 127 games54% · 203 games
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWorick
47% · 291 game54% · 210 games
Sand KingMastery
Sand King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetLastHero-
48% · 343 games48% · 257 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Enchantress
Enchantressso bad
40% · 214 games52% · 238 games
Shadow Demonvelheor
Shadow Demon
Abaddon
AbaddonBLACKARXANGEL
56% · 295 games52% · 362 games
Baneantoha
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 65%
Series resultX3 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3