Patriots vs Army Geniuses — prediction BPSS1Ю · Dota 2

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BTS Pro Series Season 11. ЮВА · BO2

result vs prediction

PPatriotsloss 1:1

series probability

41%59%

probability at match start · final 1:1

Army Geniusesloss 1:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Patriots

No games played over 6 months.

Army Geniuses

Pangoliersignature

woMy · 11 games

64%

Grimstroke

Varizh · 8 games

38%

Gyrocopter

Varizh · 8 games

38%

Void Spiritoften banned

Azur4 · 8 games

50%

Weaversignature

Varizh · 8 games

63%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Azur4 · 7 games

57%

Monkey Kingoften banned

db- · 7 games

29%

Snapfire

Lym- · 7 games

57%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Bane

448 picks · 274 bans

57%

Mars

432 picks · 579 bans

53%

Tiny

391 picks · 459 bans

52%

Death Prophet

347 picks · 742 bans

54%

Sand King

330 picks · 460 bans

54%

Ember Spirit

321 picks · 475 bans

51%

Storm Spirit

290 picks · 427 bans

54%

Pangolier

288 picks · 431 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%

Hero pool strength50% Patriots

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total59% Army Geniuses

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed36:16

Patriots 44%Army Geniuses 56%

The model gave 56% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Patriots in 34:50.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo