Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Novawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 2 games
Iooften banned
Eixn · 2 games
Mirana
OmaR · 2 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 2 games
Bane
Eixn · 1 game
Earth Spirit
OmaR · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
No!ob · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Eixn · 1 game
Nova
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
foryou · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
paradise' · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
foryou · 5 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
paradise' · 5 games
Snapfire
so bad · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
swedenstrong · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
445 picks · 277 bans
Mars
432 picks · 577 bans
Tiny
390 picks · 459 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 742 bans
Sand King
330 picks · 456 bans
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 473 bans
Storm Spirit
291 picks · 423 bans
Pangolier
285 picks · 431 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 29%
Hero pool strength59% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:32
PSG Quest 53%Nova 47%
The model gave 53% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Nova in 23:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ViperNo!ob
Weaverparadise'
MiranaOmaR
Ember Spiritforyou
UndyingEixn
MarsBb3px
Game 2prediction missed33:32
PSG Quest 53%Nova 47%
The model gave 53% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Nova in 46:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierNo!ob
Phantom Lancerparadise'
Treant ProtectorEixn
Death Prophetforyou
HoodwinkOmaR
Dragon KnightBb3px
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 54%
Series resultNova 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2