CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Shpilitloss 0:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Shpilit
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Solo · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Zarich · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 1 game
Leshrac
Ainkrad · 1 game
Muerta
zuyzyan · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Zarich · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Zarich · 1 game
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 27 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 18 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 17 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
Sand King
mellojul · 14 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
591 picks · 864 bans
Tiny
506 picks · 533 bans
Tusk
448 picks · 405 bans
Warlock
434 picks · 303 bans
Shadow Demon
399 picks · 1035 bans
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 666 bans
Mars
381 picks · 583 bans
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 552 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Team Shpilit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:35
Team Shpilit 37%Team Lynx 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerZarich
Slark7jesu
Ember SpiritAinkrad
BristlebackVladikTheHtiviy
Kezzuyzyan
Tinymellojul
Bounty HunterKyzko
Dark WillowQBFY
JakiroSolo
Warlockkreker
Game 2prediction correct30:43
Team Shpilit 35%Team Lynx 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 44:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windrangerzuyzyan
Ursa7jesu
Void SpiritAinkrad
Sand Kingmellojul
RazorZarich
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
TuskKyzko
Phoenixkreker
JakiroSolo
LionQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 76%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2