Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Mind Gameswin 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
CIS Rejectsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
CIS Rejects
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
439 picks · 275 bans
Mars
426 picks · 576 bans
Tiny
389 picks · 455 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 738 bans
Sand King
327 picks · 452 bans
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 472 bans
Storm Spirit
288 picks · 419 bans
Pangolier
284 picks · 430 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Mind Games
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% CIS Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:63
Mind Games 37%CIS Rejects 63%
The model gave 63% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 57:51.
Game 2prediction correct19:31
Mind Games 37%CIS Rejects 63%
The model gave 63% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 42:25.
Game 3prediction correct15:25
Mind Games 37%CIS Rejects 63%
The model gave 63% on CIS Rejects — the game was taken by CIS Rejects in 37:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteCIS Rejects · 63%
Series resultMind Games 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3