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CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AVULUSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 45 games
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 43 games
67%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 37 games
65%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 37 games
46%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 36 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 34 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 32 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 31 game
48%

AVULUS

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
asdekor_r · 25 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
dualrazee · 25 games
44%
Puck
Puckoften banned
dualrazee · 21 game
57%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 17 games
24%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Corrupted · 16 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
Corrupted · 15 games
60%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Wein · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
JANTER · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
588 picks · 864 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 533 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
448 picks · 405 bans
46%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 302 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 1031 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 664 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 579 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
361 picks · 551 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength57% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total51% AVULUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:7
HULIGANI 52%AVULUS 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 29:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinssnovv1
56% · 233 games48% · 358 games
UrsaDarkLord^
Ursa
Puck
PuckMirage
56% · 371 game51% · 180 games
BrewmasterPalantimos
Brewmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
49% · 337 games50% · 549 games
Tinydualrazee
Tiny
Tusk
Tusksayuw
45% · 528 games54% · 121 game
Lionqueezy
Lion
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
44% · 201 game47% · 462 games
Ringmasterasdekor_r
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct21:10
HULIGANI 51%AVULUS 49%
The model gave 51% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 38:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerssnovv1
44% · 96 games53% · 128 games
Templar AssassinDarkLord^
Templar Assassin
Largo
LargoCorrupted
57% · 71 game50% · 46 games
Tinkerdualrazee
Tinker
Viper
ViperMirage
61% · 75 games47% · 118 games
UnderlordPalantimos
Underlord
Dazzle
DazzleRESPECT
51% · 117 games45% · 135 games
Phoenixasdekor_r
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansayuw
50% · 275 games44% · 207 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteAVULUS · 51%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2