Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Mind Gamesloss 0:2series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Mind Games
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 9 games
Queen of Painsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 8 games
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 8 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
436 picks · 275 bans
Mars
425 picks · 571 bans
Tiny
388 picks · 450 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 731 bans
Sand King
326 picks · 445 bans
Ember Spirit
320 picks · 467 bans
Pangolier
283 picks · 426 bans
Storm Spirit
280 picks · 419 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 63%
Hero pool strength63% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total90% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:19
Mind Games 10%Team Spirit 90%
The model gave 90% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:17.
Game 2prediction correct16:3
Mind Games 10%Team Spirit 90%
The model gave 90% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 15:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 90%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2